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Earnings and supply chain notes, 2019–2022

Quarterly notes from the earnings calls and supply chain data of 2019 to 2022, grouped by theme, newest first within each group.

These pieces are kept as written at the time. Charts are the originals from the time of publication.

Cloud capex and data center

1. 2021-11-23The Data Driven Tech Revolution, Part 3: Q3 2021 Earnings Show Intel Losing the Data Center, and 2023 Is the Deadline
2. 2021-11-27The Data Driven Tech Revolution, Part 4: NVIDIA Is a Full Computing Platform Now, and Its Data Center Demand Has Broadened Past the Hyperscalers
3. 2021-03-16Public Cloud Is a $129 Billion Market Growing 35%, and the Top Five Already Own 80% of It
4. 2021-03-03Microsoft's Full Cloud Stack Delivered a Standout December 2020 Quarter, and Azure Growth Reaccelerated to 50%
5. 2020-12-05Q3 2020 Data Center Earnings: Cloud Capex Turns Back Up for 2021, but Only the Hyperscale Upgrade Is Working
6. 2020-11-14AMD Buys Xilinx: The Data Center Is Now the Whole Game
7. 2020-08-11Q2 2020 Cloud Capex Estimates Are Back Up 5%, So the Data Center Inventory Correction Should Be a Short One
8. 2020-05-24NVIDIA Data Center Revenue Grew 80% and Now Makes Up 37% of Sales, With the A100 Only Starting to Ship
9. 2020-05-04Q1 2020 Cloud Earnings: Hyperscaler Capex Growth Cut to 7.6% From 13.6%, and Data Center Faces a Second Half Inventory Test
10. 2020-04-02Microsoft Teams Usage in Locked Down Italy Grew 775% in One Week: The Pandemic Is Speeding Up the Enterprise Move to Cloud
11. 2020-03-29NVIDIA at GTC 2020: Guidance Unchanged, Inference Volume Up 4x, and Only the 5% Auto Business Is Hit
12. 2020-02-15Q4 2019 US Chip Earnings: Data Center Demand Is Back and Cloud Capex Growth Reaccelerates From 8% to 14%
13. 2019-11-07Q3 2019 Cloud Capex: Estimates for 2019 and 2020 Both Cut 3%, and Less of the Money Goes Into Data Centers

TSMC and chip equipment

1. 2022-06-14TSMC After a 20% Drawdown: Still the Biggest Winner of the Data Driven Era
2. 2022-01-10Before TSMC's January 2022 Call: Board Appropriations Point to About $43.5 Billion of Capex and 20% Revenue Growth
3. 2021-04-27The Data Driven Tech Revolution, Part 2: Intel's $20 Billion Foundry Bet Reads the Trend Right, but the Evidence Is Not There Yet
4. 2021-04-19The Data Driven Tech Revolution, Part 1: Applied Materials' Analyst Day Says Data Growth Turned Chip Equipment Into a Growth Business
5. 2021-02-25Applied Materials' Q1 FY2021 Call: Onshoring Chip Manufacturing Is an Equipment Windfall, and 2021 WFE Is Tracking Above the Street's $70 Billion
6. 2021-01-30Intel's New CEO Has No Way Out: Ship 7nm in 2023, or Keep Losing CPU Share to Accelerators, ARM and AMD
7. 2020-12-08Q3 2020 Chip Equipment Earnings: Foundry Strength Carries Into 2021, Memory Confirms Its Bottom, and China Spending Holds
8. 2020-11-11Q3 2020: TSMC and Its Customers Pull Away, and Intel's Prices Start to Crack
9. 2020-10-10After Moore's Law, TSMC's 3D Packaging Builds an Absolute Lead, Part 1: The 3DFabric Platform
10. 2020-10-10After Moore's Law, TSMC's 3D Packaging Builds an Absolute Lead, Part 2: Who Pays the Bill
11. 2020-08-19Q2 2020 Chip Equipment Earnings: Guidance Is Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels, and China Capex Is Still Running Hot
12. 2020-08-14TSMC's Board Appropriations Point to Another Capex Raise in 2020: We See $19 to $20 Billion
13. 2020-07-28TSMC and Intel, Q2 2020: Intel's 7nm Slips Six Months, and the HPC Era Runs Through TSMC
14. 2020-06-14Q1 2020 Chip Equipment Earnings: China Is Stepping Up Semiconductor Investment, and Everything Else Is Flat
15. 2020-04-18TSMC's Q1 2020 Call: Revenue Up 42% and Full Year Guidance Above Consensus, but Second Half Utilization Is the Risk
16. 2020-03-02Q4 2019 Chip Equipment Earnings: The Vendors Point to a Semiconductor Upturn, and TSMC Guides 2020 Capex to $15 to $16 Billion
17. 2020-02-20TSMC's January 2020 Call: Smartphones Carry the Virus Risk, Data Center Is Strong, and Capex Guidance Looks Low
18. 2019-12-12Intel's CEO Explains the CPU Shortage, and Why TSMC's Process Lead Keeps Widening: 2022 Is the Checkpoint
19. 2019-11-27Q3 2019 Chip Equipment Earnings: No One Cut Their Outlook, Logic and Foundry Carry 2020, and Memory Still Waiting
20. 2019-11-07TSMC's Q3 2019 Call: Capex Raised to $14 to $15 Billion, and 5nm Concentration Makes Results Lumpier

Software and SaaS

1. 2021-12-08The Data Driven Tech Revolution, Part 5: US Corporate Capex Is Rising, and Digital Transformation Is Where the Money Goes
2. 2020-09-26A Tech Bubble? After a 13.4% Nasdaq Drawdown, the Case for the Tech Leaders Still Holds
3. 2020-07-21Tech Is Eating the World: Twelve Post-Pandemic Trends, and a Screen of US-Listed E-Commerce Stocks
4. 2020-05-10S&P 500 Earnings Estimates for 2020 Are Down 19.7%, and Software's Went Up 2.7%
5. 2019-12-11The Subscription Series, Part 3: Microsoft Is the Strongest Franchise in SaaS, and Commercial Cloud Drove 80% of Its Revenue Growth
6. 2019-12-05The Subscription Series, Part 2: One Map of the SaaS Market, and Why Adobe's Operating Margin Tripled to 31.5%
7. 2019-11-22The Subscription Series, Part 1: Software Is Changing the World, and How to Underwrite a SaaS Business

Autos

1. 2022-12-17Global Auto Supply Chain, Q3 2022 Earnings: OEMs on Thin Ice, Tier 1 No Shocks, Auto Chip Estimates Start Coming Down
2. 2022-09-14Global Auto Supply Chain, Q2 2022 Earnings: OEMs Under Pressure, Tier 1s Still Split, Auto Semis the Only Thing Working
3. 2021-11-30Global Auto Supply Chain, Q3 2021 Earnings: Capex Expands Sharply, and Auto Semis Win as EV and ADAS Content Climbs

Other collections

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