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AI main line, 2023 to 2025

The AI industrial revolution series and the GenAI reads that led into the 2026 work, newest first.

These pieces are kept as written at the time. Charts are the originals from the time of publication.

  1. 2025-07-10 · Written in 2025The AI Application Boom: Enterprise Adoption Is Accelerating Exponentially, and We Are at a Historic Turning Point Across the Cycle

    US enterprise paid AI adoption went from 8% in 2022 to 42% in 2025, and Anthropic added $3B of ARR in six months. That is a turning point.

  2. 2025-06-06 · Written in 2025Is AI Capital Spending Justified? An AI Investment Bubble? Let the Data Answer

    AI creates more than $100B of value in 2025 against $86.5B of 2024 incremental capex at the five hyperscalers: spending is running behind demand, not ahead.

  3. 2024-12-10 · Written in 2024GenAI in 2024: $27.7B of Revenue Now, $52B Next Year, and No Single Winner

    Our bottom-up estimate puts 2024 GenAI revenue at $27.7B and 2025 at $52B, as agents arrive and enterprises run three or more models each.

  4. 2024-07-11 · Written in 2024AI Capex: Bubble or Opportunity? The Insiders Are Betting on Scaling Laws, and 2027 Is the Checkpoint

    Insiders expect inference to fall from $10 to $0.1 per million tokens in two to five years, and models to beat humans by 2027. 2027 is the checkpoint.

  5. 2023-09-19 · Written in 2023The AI Industrial Revolution, Part 2: Three Innings Since 2016, and Why the Winners' List Keeps Getting Shorter

    AI has run three innings since 2016. In the third, from 2022, end demand still has no proven model, and only NVIDIA and Microsoft compound their lead.

  6. 2023-07-06 · Written in 2023The AI Industrial Revolution, Part 1: Exponential Data Growth Put Software and Semiconductors on a Multiyear Growth Track

    US tech profits stalled after the smartphone, then turned up from 2016. The growth sits in semiconductors and software, driven by exponential data growth.

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How we invest: notes on methodTrack record: the calls and the checksThe electronics inventory cycleEarnings and supply chain notes, 2019–2022