Track record: the calls and the checks
The signals we published and what happened next: the May 2022 sell, the November 2023 buy, the May 2025 final sell, and the checks on AI capex and adoption.
These pieces are kept as written at the time. Charts are the originals from the time of publication.
- 2022-05-06 · Written in 2022The Sell Signal Has Fired: Taiwan's Electronics Supply Chain Is Heading Into an Inventory Correction
Taiwan's April 2022 PMI turned new orders minus customers' inventories negative: the sell signal that ends a near three-year electronics inventory bull run.
- 2024-03-27 · Written in 2024Taiwan's Electronics Inventory Cycle Gives Another Buy Signal, and Ten Years of Data Say the Rule Still Works
Taiwan's electronics inventory cycle gave a buy signal in November 2023. The last three ran four to six quarters, with the electronics index up 30% to 50%. Buy signal fired November 2023, written up March 2024.
- 2025-05-13 · Written in 2025The Complete Guide to the Electronics Inventory Cycle, Part 4: Taiwan's Final Sell Signal Has Fired
Taiwan's April PMI put new orders at 47.5 against customers' inventories at 47.7, the final sell signal of this electronics inventory cycle.
- 2025-06-06 · Written in 2025Is AI Capital Spending Justified? An AI Investment Bubble? Let the Data Answer
AI creates more than $100B of value in 2025 against $86.5B of 2024 incremental capex at the five hyperscalers: spending is running behind demand, not ahead.
- 2025-07-10 · Written in 2025The AI Application Boom: Enterprise Adoption Is Accelerating Exponentially, and We Are at a Historic Turning Point Across the Cycle
US enterprise paid AI adoption went from 8% in 2022 to 42% in 2025, and Anthropic added $3B of ARR in six months. That is a turning point.
- 2026-07-10 · Written in 2026One Year Later, the Scorecard: AI Adoption Ran Faster Than We Said
A year after FinSight's last post, we mark every 2025 call to market and find AI adoption ran faster than we said.
Other collections
How we invest: notes on methodThe electronics inventory cycleAI main line, 2023 to 2025Earnings and supply chain notes, 2019–2022