Articles
FinSight research articles in English, with the charts embedded as live, interactive versions.
AI Debt, Part 2: Hidden Debt and Circular Financing. Who Carries the Risk, and When Would Big Tech Pause Capex?
2026-09-28
Big Tech's $2.3T of off-balance-sheet commitments are in plain sight. We map who carries the risk if AI disappoints and what signals a capex pause.
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AI Debt, Part 1: Big Tech Can Fund Its 2027 Capex. Can AI Earn the Money Back?
2026-09-21
Big Tech bond sales are up eightfold in five years. By our math, 2027 needs $105B to $305B of new borrowing, which is fundable. The real test is AI payback.
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Has AI Spending Topped Out? Is This the SaaS Apocalypse? Two Worries, One Answer
2026-09-08
Uber's AI usage is up ninefold since February with its bill flat, and four software vendors just laid out the AI governance layer, two already priced.
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Is AI Revenue Topping Out, or Waiting for the Next Step Up? Four Years of Step-Function Growth
2026-09-03
Four years of AI revenue show step-function growth in which every step follows a product launch, so a pause is not a peak.
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The Market Says AI Revenue Missed. So Why Is AI Compute Still Getting Tighter?
2026-08-31
AI ARR reached $105.8B on August 13, running 23% ahead of the line we drew in July rather than missing it.
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Still Reading AI Model Pricing as a Price War? The Rules Changed in Mid-2025
2026-08-25
Across 211 list prices at nine model companies, AI pricing stopped falling in mid-2025 and started sorting into tiers instead of a price war.
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2Q26 Cloud Earnings: Capacity-Constrained and Still Accelerating, With Demand Visible Out to 2028
2026-08-11
AWS grew 36.7%, Azure 43% and Google Cloud 82% while every one of them was short of capacity to sell, with order books now running into 2028.
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Who Pays the $2 Trillion 2027 AI Capex Bill? The Hyperscalers Owe About 60%, and the Math Works
2026-08-03
Backing into 2027 capex from supplier revenue gives an AI bill of about $1.98T, of which the five hyperscalers owe roughly 60%, or $1.19T.
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AI Is Not a Money Pit: We Drew the Cost Line for AI Compute, and It Is About a Year From Paying Off
2026-07-22
AI compute breaks even at $4.5k per GPU a year. Revenue per chip is $2,430 today, and on the current trajectory it hits the line in mid-2027.
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Today's Price Hikes Are the Early Innings: AI Compute Gets Tighter From Here, at Least Through Late 2027
2026-07-17
AI compute stays short at least through 2H27, with data center additions thinning to 1.41GW in 1H27, just 8.9% of the installed base at the end of that half.
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One Year Later, the Scorecard: AI Adoption Ran Faster Than We Said
2026-07-10
A year after FinSight's last post, we mark every 2025 call to market and find AI adoption ran faster than we said.
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Earlier work
Research from 2019 to 2025, kept as written at the time, in three collections.