https://en.finsight.investments/ AI infrastructure research: compute, cloud earnings, capex, financing. Research sharing, not investment advice. en https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-debt-2-who-carries-risk/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-debt-2-who-carries-risk/ Mon, 28 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Big Tech's $2.3T of off-balance-sheet commitments are in plain sight. We map who carries the risk if AI disappoints and what signals a capex pause. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-debt-2027-borrowing/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-debt-2027-borrowing/ Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Big Tech bond sales are up eightfold in five years. By our math, 2027 needs $105B to $305B of new borrowing, which is fundable. The real test is AI payback. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-eats-harness-not-software/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-eats-harness-not-software/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Uber's AI usage is up ninefold since February with its bill flat, and four software vendors just laid out the AI governance layer, two already priced. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/arr-staircase-growth/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/arr-staircase-growth/ Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Four years of AI revenue show step-function growth in which every step follows a product launch, so a pause is not a peak. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/arr-slowdown-check/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/arr-slowdown-check/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT Picaca AI ARR reached $105.8B on August 13, running 23% ahead of the line we drew in July rather than missing it. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-pricing-tiers-2025/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-pricing-tiers-2025/ Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Across 211 list prices at nine model companies, AI pricing stopped falling in mid-2025 and started sorting into tiers instead of a price war. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/cloud-earnings-2q26/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/cloud-earnings-2q26/ Tue, 11 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT Picaca AWS grew 36.7%, Azure 43% and Google Cloud 82% while every one of them was short of capacity to sell, with order books now running into 2028. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/capex-who-pays-2027/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/capex-who-pays-2027/ Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Backing into 2027 capex from supplier revenue gives an AI bill of about $1.98T, of which the five hyperscalers owe roughly 60%, or $1.19T. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/compute-breakeven-2027/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/compute-breakeven-2027/ Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT Picaca AI compute breaks even at $4.5k per GPU a year. Revenue per chip is $2,430 today, and on the current trajectory it hits the line in mid-2027. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/compute-shortage-2027/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/compute-shortage-2027/ Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT Picaca AI compute stays short at least through 2H27, with data center additions thinning to 1.41GW in 1H27, just 8.9% of the installed base at the end of that half. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/one-year-check/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/one-year-check/ Fri, 10 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT Picaca A year after FinSight's last post, we mark every 2025 call to market and find AI adoption ran faster than we said. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-adoption-turning-point-2025/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-adoption-turning-point-2025/ Thu, 10 Jul 2025 00:00:00 GMT Picaca US enterprise paid AI adoption went from 8% in 2022 to 42% in 2025, and Anthropic added $3B of ARR in six months. That is a turning point. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-capex-rationality-2025/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-capex-rationality-2025/ Fri, 06 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMT Picaca AI creates more than $100B of value in 2025 against $86.5B of 2024 incremental capex at the five hyperscalers: spending is running behind demand, not ahead. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-cycle-final-sell-signal-2025/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-cycle-final-sell-signal-2025/ Tue, 13 May 2025 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Taiwan's April PMI put new orders at 47.5 against customers' inventories at 47.7, the final sell signal of this electronics inventory cycle. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-cycle-guide-3-trend/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-cycle-guide-3-trend/ Thu, 19 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Ten years of TSMC inventory signals: every time the rule sold, it had to buy back higher. The 2024 signal splits the sector, non-AI 2025 estimates cut 6.4%. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/genai-trends-2024/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/genai-trends-2024/ Tue, 10 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Our bottom-up estimate puts 2024 GenAI revenue at $27.7B and 2025 at $52B, as agents arrive and enterprises run three or more models each. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-cycle-guide-2-ai-structure/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-cycle-guide-2-ai-structure/ Tue, 26 Nov 2024 00:00:00 GMT Picaca This sell signal hits a changed sector: on 2025 estimates NVIDIA and TSMC are 42% of Philadelphia Semiconductor Index revenue and 61% of its net income. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-cycle-guide-1-sell-signal/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-cycle-guide-1-sell-signal/ Thu, 14 Nov 2024 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Taiwan's preliminary sell signal fired in September 2024. Past cycles say the electronics index falls 18% to 26% over the following five to nine months. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/genai-insider-forecasts-2024/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/genai-insider-forecasts-2024/ Thu, 11 Jul 2024 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Insiders expect inference to fall from $10 to $0.1 per million tokens in two to five years, and models to beat humans by 2027. 2027 is the checkpoint. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-buy-signal-2024/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-buy-signal-2024/ Wed, 27 Mar 2024 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Taiwan's electronics inventory cycle gave a buy signal in November 2023. The last three ran four to six quarters, with the electronics index up 30% to 50%. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-revolution-2-three-stages/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-revolution-2-three-stages/ Tue, 19 Sep 2023 00:00:00 GMT Picaca AI has run three innings since 2016. In the third, from 2022, end demand still has no proven model, and only NVIDIA and Microsoft compound their lead. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-revolution-1-data-growth/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/ai-revolution-1-data-growth/ Thu, 06 Jul 2023 00:00:00 GMT Picaca US tech profits stalled after the smartphone, then turned up from 2016. The growth sits in semiconductors and software, driven by exponential data growth. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/memo-credit-cycle-vs-inventory-cycle/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/memo-credit-cycle-vs-inventory-cycle/ Thu, 30 Mar 2023 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Markets are paying for a sharp fourth quarter 2023 earnings rebound and SOX at 22x forward. The inventory buy signal has not fired and credit keeps tightening. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/auto-supply-chain-3q22/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/auto-supply-chain-3q22/ Sat, 17 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Q3 2022 auto earnings: OEMs held guidance, Tier 1 suppliers kept improving, and auto chip estimates started coming down, cut 5% to 10% in 60 days. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/memo-circle-of-competence/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/memo-circle-of-competence/ Thu, 15 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Buy and hold, buying the turn and buying the trend each need different research, different sizing and a different size of book. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-signals-trading-styles-2022/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-signals-trading-styles-2022/ Thu, 01 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Taiwan's electronics inventory sell signal fired on May 2, 2022. Ten years of data say the index low prints before the buy signal, after drops of 20% plus. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-3q22-tunnel/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-3q22-tunnel/ Mon, 28 Nov 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Third quarter 2022 filings: excluding TSMC, Hon Hai and MediaTek, Taiwan tech operating profit fell 25% year over year. We put the buy signal in mid-2023. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/auto-supply-chain-2q22/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/auto-supply-chain-2q22/ Wed, 14 Sep 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Q2 2022 auto earnings: OEMs mostly held guidance, BMW and Stellantis aside. Tier 1s stayed split, auto semis raised again. Light vehicle growth still 3% to 5%. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-corrections-history-2022/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-corrections-history-2022/ Wed, 24 Aug 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Past electronics inventory corrections bottomed in about six months. Cloud and software net income estimates are down 7% to 10% in 60 days. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-2q22-foundry-tilt/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-2q22-foundry-tilt/ Sun, 21 Aug 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Taiwan electronics inventory days hit a post-2010 high in Q2 2022, up 15 days from a year earlier, while foundry took close to 60% of sector operating profit. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/memo-macro-vs-micro-dog/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/memo-macro-vs-micro-dog/ Thu, 28 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca In 2022 prices fell while EPS held up. We break share prices into four forces: fundamentals, valuation, monetary policy and risk appetite. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/memo-kelly-criterion/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/memo-kelly-criterion/ Tue, 28 Jun 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca The Kelly criterion turns win rate and payoff ratio into a position size: a 2 to 1 coin flip says stake 25%, and 50% is twice Kelly, where growth goes to zero. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/memo-stop-loss-position-sizing/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/memo-stop-loss-position-sizing/ Fri, 24 Jun 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca In Taiwan index futures from 2001 to 2014, a 30 point stop turned a losing day trade profitable, at the cost of a win rate falling to 39%. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-data-driven-update-2022/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-data-driven-update-2022/ Tue, 14 Jun 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca TSMC is down 11% year to date through June 8, 2022 and 20% off its high, yet high performance computing is now its largest line, up 59% year over year. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-review-2-cloud-capex-2022/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-review-2-cloud-capex-2022/ Wed, 08 Jun 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca US cloud capex swung hard: cut in the third quarter of 2018, revised up 8% for 2018 and 11% for 2019, then down 11% year over year. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-review-1-nvidia-2022/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/inventory-review-1-nvidia-2022/ Tue, 07 Jun 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca NVIDIA's May 2022 quarter is August 2018 again: inventory called normal, guidance light. Last time, data center took three more quarters to turn negative. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-1q22-extreme/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-1q22-extreme/ Mon, 23 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Taiwan electronics inventory days rose 8.9 days year over year in Q1 2022, a record, and export orders just turned negative for the first time this cycle. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-sell-signal-2022/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-sell-signal-2022/ Fri, 06 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Taiwan's April 2022 PMI turned new orders minus customers' inventories negative: the sell signal that ends a near three-year electronics inventory bull run. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-risk-1q22/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-risk-1q22/ Wed, 27 Apr 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Taiwan Q4 2021 filings: record profits, but inventory days rose 9.8 days year over year and electronic component makers added 13 days. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-before-call-1q22/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-before-call-1q22/ Mon, 10 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT Picaca TSMC board appropriations are up 45% year over year, pointing to roughly $43.5 billion of 2022 capex and 20% revenue growth against 3% for Taiwan. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tech-changing-world-how-to-face-2021/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tech-changing-world-how-to-face-2021/ Thu, 09 Dec 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Electrification cut factory coal bills 20% to 60% and still killed most incumbents. In the data revolution, process redesign is what sorts winners. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-revolution-5-digital-transformation/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-revolution-5-digital-transformation/ Wed, 08 Dec 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Analysts see S&P 500 capex growing 12.6% in 2022, ahead of 10.6% operating profit growth, and the money is going into digital transformation. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/auto-supply-chain-3q21/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/auto-supply-chain-3q21/ Tue, 30 Nov 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Q3 2021 auto earnings: supply chain capex expands sharply, auto semis get both revenue and profit revised higher, and Infineon's auto book-to-bill hits 2.5. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-revolution-4-nvidia/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-revolution-4-nvidia/ Sat, 27 Nov 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca NVIDIA's two 2021 GTCs: three chips, one architecture, an annual refresh. Data center revenue grew 54.5%, and hyperscale is down to 30% of it from 50%. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-revolution-3-data-center-race/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-revolution-3-data-center-race/ Tue, 23 Nov 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Q3 2021 semi earnings split hard. Intel's 2022 operating income was cut 20% and gross margin is heading to 51% to 53%, while AMD and NVIDIA take share. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-turn-signal-2021/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-turn-signal-2021/ Sun, 15 Aug 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Taiwan's sell signals have not fired, but information and communication technology export order growth fell to 7% and the diffusion index hit 37.7. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-revolution-2-intel-idm2/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-revolution-2-intel-idm2/ Tue, 27 Apr 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Intel's IDM 2.0 puts $20 billion into a foundry business from 2024. The read on cloud customers designing their own chips is right; the evidence is not. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-revolution-1-amat/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-revolution-1-amat/ Mon, 19 Apr 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Applied Materials' 2021 analyst day: data compounding 88% a year to 2025, and wafer fab equipment up from $28B in 2013 to over $70B in 2021. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/public-cloud-oligopoly-2021/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/public-cloud-oligopoly-2021/ Tue, 16 Mar 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Cloud infrastructure spending hit $37.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020, up 35% year over year, and the top five providers hold 80% of the market. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/msft-4q20-cloud/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/msft-4q20-cloud/ Wed, 03 Mar 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Microsoft's December 2020 quarter: revenue up 17% to $43.1 billion, the fastest in eight quarters, with Azure growth back up from 47% to 50%. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/amat-4q20-call/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/amat-4q20-call/ Thu, 25 Feb 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Applied Materials beat on its January 2021 quarter: revenue $5.162B, up 24% year over year, and it sees 2021 WFE above the $65B to $70B consensus. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/intel-new-ceo-2021/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/intel-new-ceo-2021/ Sat, 30 Jan 2021 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Intel's incoming CEO says most 2023 products stay in-house while outsourcing widens. AMD leads 50.8% of desktop PassMark submissions, a 15 year first. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/wfe-3q20-calls/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/wfe-3q20-calls/ Tue, 08 Dec 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca All five chip equipment makers beat in the third quarter of 2020. SEMI's standing 2021 forecast is 24% growth, and China WFE holds at $9.5B to $10B. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-center-3q20/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/data-center-3q20/ Sat, 05 Dec 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Hyperscale capital spending turns back up and grows 13% in 2021, but enterprise spending stays weak. Only Intel among the chip makers feels the correction. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-3q20/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-3q20/ Mon, 30 Nov 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Q3 2020 filings: Taiwan component inventory days fell from Q2, revenue rose 4% and profit rose 27%. A sell signal could come as early as Q2 2021. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/amd-xilinx-2020/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/amd-xilinx-2020/ Sat, 14 Nov 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca AMD is buying Xilinx because compute is moving into the data center. Management sees the combined company growing more than 20% a year, versus Xilinx's 15%. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-3q20-alliance/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-3q20-alliance/ Wed, 11 Nov 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca TSMC held a 53.4% gross margin with 5nm at 8% of Q3 2020 revenue, and its board approved a record $15.1 billion of capital appropriations. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-cycle-2020/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-cycle-2020/ Mon, 12 Oct 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Taiwan's electronics inventory cycle has more room to run. We see the bull leg lasting into the first half of 2021, with the sector up 44.7% since August 2019. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-3d-packaging-1/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-3d-packaging-1/ Sat, 10 Oct 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca In August 2020 TSMC folded SoIC, InFO and CoWoS into one platform, 3DFabric. Advanced packaging, not the node number, is where its lead now widens. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-3d-packaging-2/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-3d-packaging-2/ Sat, 10 Oct 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Design cost hits $650 million at 3nm. Chiplet packaging cuts processor cost by more than half, and $82.57 billion of 2020 cloud capex pays for it. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tech-bubble-2020/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tech-bubble-2020/ Sat, 26 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca The Nasdaq fell as much as 13.4% off its high. Q2 2020 tech operating income was down 3% against down 36% for the market, so the re-rating case holds. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/wfe-2q20-calls/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/wfe-2q20-calls/ Wed, 19 Aug 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca The equipment makers guided 2020 wafer fab equipment back to $57 to $59 billion, the pre-pandemic level, with China WFE at $9.5 to $10 billion. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-capex-2020/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-capex-2020/ Fri, 14 Aug 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca TSMC's board approved $5.27B of appropriations on August 11, 2020. The trailing four quarters total $24.29B, and we see 2020 capex near $19B to $20B. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/cloud-capex-2q20/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/cloud-capex-2q20/ Tue, 11 Aug 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca 2020 cloud capex estimates are back up 5% to their pre-pandemic level and 2021 points to 7% growth, so the coming inventory correction looks small. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-intel-paradigm-shift-2020/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-intel-paradigm-shift-2020/ Tue, 28 Jul 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Intel's 7nm slipped six months and outsourcing is on the table for 2023. TSMC guided Q3 2020 gross margin to 50% to 52%, above its 50% target. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tech-eating-world-ecommerce-2020/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tech-eating-world-ecommerce-2020/ Tue, 21 Jul 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Morgan Stanley's twelve post-pandemic tech trends, the themes whose ETFs are already up more than 30% in 2020, and a screen of US-listed e-commerce names. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/wfe-1q20-calls/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/wfe-1q20-calls/ Sun, 14 Jun 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Equipment makers held their outlooks flat and turned cautious on second half 2020. Only China moved up, with SMIC taking a $2.25 billion state injection. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/nvidia-data-center-1q20/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/nvidia-data-center-1q20/ Sun, 24 May 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca NVIDIA data center revenue grew 80% to a record in the first quarter of 2020 and reached 37% of sales, and the A100 is only starting to ship. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/software-new-highs-2020/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/software-new-highs-2020/ Sun, 10 May 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca S&P 500 2020 earnings estimates fell to minus 19.7% by May 8, 2020. Software estimates were revised up 2.7%, and the cloud index is up 21% this year. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/cloud-capex-1q20/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/cloud-capex-1q20/ Mon, 04 May 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca The four hyperscalers cut 2020 capex growth to 7.6% from 13.6%, while 2021 estimates barely moved. Data center chips may face an inventory test. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/semi-inventory-2h20-worry/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/semi-inventory-2h20-worry/ Sat, 25 Apr 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Texas Instruments is building inventory into the second half of 2020, Intel warns of a data center correction, and TSMC's own 2020 outlook is soft. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-1q20-call/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-1q20-call/ Sat, 18 Apr 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca TSMC beat in the first quarter of 2020 and guided full year growth to 14% to 19%, but a 5nm heavy second half points to falling utilization. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/msft-cloud-775-2020/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/msft-cloud-775-2020/ Thu, 02 Apr 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Microsoft Teams usage in locked down Italy grew 775% in a week. Commercial cloud is near 30% of revenue and grew 38.8% in 2019. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/nvidia-gtc-2020/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/nvidia-gtc-2020/ Sun, 29 Mar 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca NVIDIA kept its February 2020 guidance at GTC on March 24. Data center demand is intact, inference volume is up 4x, and the hit is the 5% auto business. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/wfe-4q19-calls/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/wfe-4q19-calls/ Mon, 02 Mar 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca The five major equipment makers point to a semiconductor upturn: TSMC guides 2020 capex to $15 to $16 billion, and memory spending bottoms this year. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-long-short-view-2020/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-long-short-view-2020/ Thu, 20 Feb 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca TSMC's platform guidance implies about 20% growth in 2020. Data center is firm, smartphones carry virus and trade risk, and capex guidance looks low. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/us-chips-4q19-data-center/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/us-chips-4q19-data-center/ Sat, 15 Feb 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Q4 2019 US chip earnings show data center demand back: NVIDIA data center revenue up 42.6%, Intel DCG up 18.8%, and 2020 cloud capex growth of 14%. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-cycle-jan-2020/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tw-inventory-cycle-jan-2020/ Sun, 19 Jan 2020 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Taiwan's inventory cycle turned bullish in the second quarter of 2019 and the electronics index is up 17.3%. History says one to two quarters left. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/intel-ceo-tsmc-lead-2019/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/intel-ceo-tsmc-lead-2019/ Thu, 12 Dec 2019 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Intel's CEO explained the CPU shortage in December 2019. The 14nm to 10nm jump was planned at 2.7x transistors, and the yield bill is now due. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/saas-3-microsoft/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/saas-3-microsoft/ Wed, 11 Dec 2019 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Azure grew 59% in the third quarter of 2019 against 35% at AWS, and commercial cloud drove 80% of Microsoft's revenue growth over four quarters. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/saas-2-competition-map/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/saas-2-competition-map/ Thu, 05 Dec 2019 00:00:00 GMT Picaca A map of consumer, packaged and enterprise SaaS. Adobe's operating margin went from 10.4% in 2013 to 31.5% in 2018 after it moved to subscription. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/wfe-3q19-calls/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/wfe-3q19-calls/ Wed, 27 Nov 2019 00:00:00 GMT Picaca No equipment maker cut its outlook this quarter. Logic and foundry carry 2020 on 5G, and TSMC raised 2019 capex to $14 to $15 billion. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/saas-1-investment-logic/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/saas-1-investment-logic/ Fri, 22 Nov 2019 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Subscription software has rerated: the IGV software ETF is up close to 150% since 2014 against 50% for the S&P 500. Here is how we underwrite SaaS. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/cloud-capex-3q19/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/cloud-capex-3q19/ Thu, 07 Nov 2019 00:00:00 GMT Picaca Cloud capex estimates for 2019 and 2020 each came down 3% from last quarter. Only Amazon's estimate went up, and the data center share is falling. https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-3q19-call/ https://en.finsight.investments/articles/tsmc-3q19-call/ Thu, 07 Nov 2019 00:00:00 GMT Picaca TSMC raised annual capex to $14 to $15 billion from $10 billion. 7nm is 25% of revenue, and at 18.4x 2020 EPS the stock is not expensive.